Sounds nice, sounds like great wisdom and should be easy, just those dumb,
selfish, greedy, vendors won't get their act together right?
If only. FDA regulation is not a monster that crawls out of the closet
when you are not looking, it is a real monster that has killed before (want
to buy a blood bank system? Seen any new ones lately?)
For decision support expert systems, it's even worse than it was for the
blood bank vendors - at least they got a grandfather clause to get the
predicate device into the system.
Why is that important? Because for a 'new' technology, the first vendor
through the gate not only has to prove that their process produces a safe
product, it also has to provide the scientific evidence that the product
has actual clinical value. That means studies, statistics, etc showing
that patients treated with the assistance of the expert system being
reviewed had better outcomes than patients that weren't treated. That
means lots and lots of time, resources, $$$$$$$$$$ and worst of all,
uncertainty for the first vendor to try to get through the gate. After the
first product is approved, depending on how broad the definition is drawn
within the FDA, vendors that come after can cite this original system as
the 'predicate device', and avoid the necessity to prove the efficacy of
the device, only that their process produces a safe product - much cheaper,
much less uncertain. In the tradiitional medical device/pharmaceutical
world, the companies can rely on patents to protect them in the marketplace
for a reasonable period of time to recoup the investment of getting that
first device approved. In the software world, while software patents are
around, they generally don't provide much legitimate protection, and have
been more a source of annoyance with cases over 'patents' as obvious as
breathing. Until the world of software patents reaches some happy balance
where genuine innovation is provided some protection, but the stupid
'patent everything and then settle it in the courts' mode is over, I don't
expect any company to risk the uncertainty of enough protection to recoup
the tremendous investment an FDA 510k clearance would require. Now, if the
FDA has a stroke of semi-rationality, and decides to let the early
expert/decision support systems get by on a simple registration process,
rather than a full 510k medical device clearance, that would also change
the equation favorably.